At the busy bus station in Agadez, a group of men, their faces hidden by turbans and sunglasses, boarded a sturdy pickup truck heading to Libya, venturing into the desert towards their dreams. Some shouted “Italy, Italy!” as they held onto short wooden poles, ready to face the journey’s challenges.
“If I earn enough in Libya, I’ll stay there. If not, I’ll leave for Europe,” said Abdoulaye Diallo, a 40-year-old from Guinea, speaking at a nearby migrant compound in late April. Niger’s military leaders overturned a European Union-backed law in November that criminalized aiding migrants. Since then, vehicles like this one bound for Libya have joined weekly convoys of Nigerien security forces heading north, instead of taking risky routes through the desert to avoid detection.
Migrant flows have significantly increased since the law’s repeal. Over 128,790 migrants were observed leaving Niger in March, 68% more than in March 2023, according to Reuters calculations based on the latest data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM), a U.N. agency. The cost charged by people smugglers to cross the desert from Niger to Libya has dropped to around $170 per person from $500 when the law was enforced, according to an IOM report last month.
The law’s reversal has caused alarm in Europe. In the lead-up to this week’s European Parliament elections, some far-right parties have predicted an influx of illegal migrants. However, nine migration experts and representatives of migration-focused organizations provided a more measured perspective, noting that data on migrants reaching Europe via the Mediterranean does not show an increase yet, although those numbers could rise in the future.
Flavio di Giacomo, the IOM spokesperson for the Mediterranean, emphasized that this is a humanitarian emergency rather than a numerical one. The U.N. agency does not expect a dramatic rise in migrant flows on this route from North Africa in the coming months. “When I hear politicians say there is an immigration emergency or talk of an invasion: no, this is not the case,” di Giacomo said.
According to the EU border agency Frontex, arrivals via the central Mediterranean have decreased by 62% from January to April, partly due to poor weather conditions complicating the sea crossing. Historical trends show that 80% of African migrants tend to stay in Africa, continuing a centuries-old tradition of free movement for economic migrants.
However, officials in the region noted that Libya and Tunisia have intensified efforts to turn back or detain migrants seeking to cross the Mediterranean, after receiving EU funds to curb migration. The EU announced last year it was investing 800 million euros across North Africa until 2024 to address the issue. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni credited the decline in crossings to the assistance from these two countries. Migrants aiming to reach Europe via Libya must first navigate various security forces and predatory militias. An aid worker in Libya described the country as “a swamp” where many migrants get stuck trying to earn money or fall prey to criminal groups.
Over the past decade, the 27-nation EU bloc has aimed to reduce irregular migration from the Middle East and Africa by tightening borders and restricting asylum laws. In Niger, this involved working with the government to ban migrant flows in exchange for budgetary support and other investments to improve local economic opportunities. The 2015 law had a dramatic impact on migration via Niger, with outgoing migrant flows falling 79% between 2016 and 2017, according to U.N. data.
Following the July 2023 coup in Niger, the new junta quickly overturned the EU deal, citing economic impacts on the Agadez region and limited financial benefits for Niger. Migration researcher Luca Raineri at Italy’s Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies noted the difficulty in gauging how much migration evaded detection before the law change. Data from local NGOs suggests a significant spike in northward movement, with 10 to 20 vehicles leaving for Libya and Algeria weekly while the law was in place, now jumping to closer to 100 vehicles.
More than 60% of migrants transiting Niger each month this year have been of Nigerien nationality, seeking work in Libya with no plans to travel further. As a result, the number of migrants recorded in Libya rose to 719,064 as of February 2024, the highest since the IOM began tracking displacement there. These migrants face widespread exploitation, with a U.N. report last year highlighting evidence of systematic torture and sexual slavery, describing potential crimes against humanity.