The UK government is being criticized after blaming sunny weather for the highest number of migrant crossings ever recorded during the first five months of 2025. The Home Office said smuggling gangs are using good weather to send more migrants across the Channel in small boats.
A new report from the Home Office released on Tuesday shows that 60 “red” days were recorded by the Met Office between January and April. These red days, when the weather makes crossings more likely, were more than double the number from the same time in 2024. That year had just 27 red days, and fewer migrants made the journey.
More than 11,000 migrants crossed the Channel between January and April 2025, compared to just over 7,500 in the same period last year. The government says this sharp rise is partly because the good weather helped smugglers launch more boats, many of them larger than before.
The average number of people in each boat has also increased a lot. In 2019, there were about 11 people per boat. By 2024, it was 53. So far in 2025, the average has gone up to 56. Officials say gangs are now using bigger boats, often launched from rivers that lead to the sea. Migrants then wade into shallow water to board, making it harder for French police to stop them due to legal limits.
Critics have slammed the government for blaming the weather instead of fixing the problem. Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said the government had “no plan” and was acting like a lazy student with the excuse: “the dog ate my homework.” He called the current leadership weak and said blaming weather is not a serious border control strategy.
This latest report comes just days after a record 1,195 migrants crossed the Channel in a single day using 19 small boats. That pushed the total for the year to 14,812 — the highest ever recorded between January and May since tracking began in 2018.
The Met Office provides daily assessments to the Home Office, classifying days based on how likely it is that migrants will try to cross. Red days mean there’s more than a 55% chance. Green days show less than a 35% chance. But these reports only look at weather and don’t include other issues like how many boats are available.
A Home Office spokesperson said they’ve stopped 9,000 crossings from the French coast so far in 2025. The government added that they’re working with France to stop gangs from taking advantage of warm weather. But experts say big changes won’t take effect until 2026, so numbers may keep rising this year.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper told MPs that she is urging French leaders to allow their police to stop small boats in shallow water. She said she had spoken to France’s interior minister over the weekend and asked for faster action, as a maritime review is already underway in France to improve their response.