A new research paper from the European Parliament has blamed Brexit as the major cause of Britain’s worsening migration crisis. According to the document titled “The Brexit Paradox: How leaving the EU led to more migration,” the decision to leave the European Union has directly resulted in a sharp rise in net migration numbers—from 248,000 at the time of the 2016 referendum to 906,000 just seven years later.
The EU study argues that had the UK remained in the bloc, it would have had more tools to manage migration challenges, including returning irregular migrants to EU countries they passed through. It also claims Brexit prompted a shift in the composition of incoming migrants, with fewer EU citizens now moving to the UK and more arrivals from outside Europe. This includes significant numbers from Ukraine, Hong Kong, and among international students.
According to the paper, new immigration laws post-Brexit have inadvertently opened the door to larger migration flows. A particularly dramatic increase in small-boat crossings across the Channel followed the UK’s formal exit from the EU’s Single Market in January 2021. Between 2018 and March 2024, 93% of those crossing by boat sought asylum, with about 75% being successful in their applications.
How did this shift happen? The EU once had a system—the Dublin Agreement—which allowed the UK to return asylum seekers to the first safe EU country they entered. That option vanished with Brexit, making it harder for the UK to control irregular entries. New talks led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are exploring a “one in, one out” deal, where the UK could return Channel migrants in exchange for taking other asylum seekers from France.
But not everyone agrees with the EU’s conclusions. Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, called the research “total nonsense,” blaming British government policies instead. Similarly, Frank Furedi from MCC Brussels criticised the report as anti-Brexit propaganda, saying it’s more about politics than facts.
Despite differing views, the numbers are clear. In 2018, only 299 illegal crossings were reported. That figure exploded to 45,744 in 2022, after Britain had fully exited EU migration rules. The study also highlights the drop in EU workers, with labour shortages in sectors like farming and meat processing now being filled by workers from non-EU countries, including Albania.
To address the broader issue, the UK and EU have signed new cooperation agreements focused on intelligence sharing and youth mobility programs. But they’ve yet to agree on practical ways to return irregular migrants to EU nations.
Why is Brexit linked to the rise in UK migration?
According to the EU report, Brexit led to a fall in EU migrants but was followed by a much larger rise in non-EU migration. It also made it harder for the UK to return irregular migrants to EU countries, worsening the migration crisis.