New crime figures in Germany have reignited a sensitive debate about migrants and crime, with experts warning that raw statistics may give a misleading picture if not properly explained.
Ahead of the official 2025 report by the Federal Criminal Police Office, data shows that more than one-third of crime suspects are non-German citizens. This stands in contrast to the fact that only about 16% of the population does not hold German citizenship. At first glance, this gap appears significant, but researchers say the numbers alone do not tell the full story.
Susann Prätor, a sociologist, psychologist, and legal scholar, explains that comparing these figures without context is like comparing “apples to oranges.” She stresses that crime statistics must be interpreted carefully, as they often mix very different social and demographic groups.
One key factor is age and gender. According to Prätor, young men are statistically more likely to be involved in criminal activity across the world, regardless of nationality. In Germany, non-German residents are generally younger on average than German citizens, which naturally increases their representation in crime data.
Another important issue is reporting bias. Studies suggest that people perceived as foreigners are more likely to be reported to the police. Research from the Criminological Institute of Lower Saxony in 2024 found that non-Germans were reported nearly three times more often than Germans. This raises concerns that some groups may be overrepresented in official statistics due to social perceptions rather than actual behavior.
Experts also highlight the importance of “unreported crime” studies, which look beyond police records. These studies involve surveys where people share their experiences as victims or perpetrators, even if incidents were never reported. According to Prätor, such research helps provide a more balanced and realistic understanding of crime patterns.
When looking at specific nationalities, the data becomes even more complex. For example, Ukrainians made up nearly 13% of suspects in 2024, despite representing a much larger share of refugees in Germany. This is largely because most Ukrainian refugees are women and children, who are statistically less likely to commit crimes.
In contrast, migrants from countries like Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, and Georgia appear more frequently in crime statistics relative to their population size. However, experts caution that this is strongly linked to demographics, as a large majority of asylum seekers from these countries are young men—a group already known to have higher crime rates globally.
A similar pattern is seen among Syrian refugees. While around 900,000 Syrians live in Germany, about 115,000 were identified as suspects in 2024. Again, the high proportion of young male refugees plays a major role in these figures.
There was also a reported 7.5% increase in violent crime involving non-German suspects in 2024. However, specialists warn that this rise may be partly due to increased reporting rather than a real surge in crime. They also note that many non-German nationals are victims of violent crime themselves, which is often overlooked in public debates.
Overall, experts argue that crime statistics should not be used to draw simple conclusions about migrants. Instead, they call for a deeper understanding of social conditions, demographics, and reporting patterns. Without this context, there is a risk that migrants may be unfairly judged or targeted based on incomplete data.