A recent report from the World Bank warns that over 216 million people across six world regions may be forced to migrate within their own countries by 2050 due to climate change, unless swift action is taken.
The Groundswell report, published in September 2021, projects that internal population movement driven by slow-onset climate impacts—such as water scarcity, crop failures, and sea level rise—could trigger hotspots of migration as soon as 2030, worsening significantly by mid-century.
If greenhouse gas emissions remain high and resilience efforts lag, the most severely affected regions include:
- Sub‑Saharan Africa: up to 86 million migrants
- East Asia & Pacific: up to 49 million
- South Asia: up to 40 million
- North Africa: up to 19 million
- Latin America: up to 17 million
- Eastern Europe & Central Asia: about 5 million.
Experts highlight that taking early, coordinated action—reducing emissions and investing in inclusive, resilient development—could cut potential internal displacement by up to 80%, reducing the figure to around 44 million migrants by 2050.
United Nations and humanitarian agencies are already sounding the alarm. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre reported that 7.7 million people remained displaced by climate-related disasters at the end of 2023, demonstrating the ongoing pressures on vulnerable communities.
Countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, and coastal West Africa are already experiencing internal shifts. For example, Bangladesh could see 0.9–2.1 million coastal displacements by 2050 due to sea level rise, necessitating significant new infrastructure and food supply systems in destination areas.
A 2023 study in the Global South projects that 143 million people may be displaced by climate impacts—including drought, flooding, and food shortages—creating urgent policy challenges.
What this means for readers:
Governments worldwide must prepare for massive internal migration—not just international movement—by:
- Strengthening rural resilience through water management, flood protection, and climate-smart agriculture.
- Upgrading urban infrastructure to receive climate migrants.
- Developing legal frameworks to support internal and cross-border displacement.
- Prioritizing inclusive climate adaptation to reduce the need for forced movement.
Without bold action, hundreds of millions could be uprooted, transforming climate change from an environmental crisis into the largest humanitarian challenge of our time.