A recent study by C40 Cities and the Mayors Migration Council reveals a staggering prediction: up to eight million people may migrate to ten major cities across Africa, South America, and southern Asia by 2050 due to climate change, if current emission levels persist. This migration is likely to significantly impact cities such as Bogotá, Amman, Freetown, and Karachi.
The research highlights that the scale of this climate-driven migration could be drastically reduced if global targets set by the Paris Agreement are met. The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C, ideally to 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels. Without meeting these targets, cities like Karachi could see up to 2.3 million new arrivals, while Bogotá and Rio de Janeiro may experience a threefold increase in climate migrants. The study underscores the urgent need for cities to be equipped with adequate resources and authority to handle the influx of climate migrants and avoid potential economic and social disruptions.
The research, which is the first of its kind, examined the impact of climate change on internal migration for cities including Accra, Dhaka, Salvador, and São Paulo. Despite their varying sizes and locations, all ten cities are expected to face significant challenges related to climate migration over the next 25 years. Key drivers of this migration include reduced agricultural productivity, rising sea levels, and increased frequency of extreme weather events like floods and wildfires.
The study also highlights that climate change is not only affecting migration patterns but also putting jobs at risk globally. Approximately 800 million jobs are threatened due to the impacts of climate change and insufficient green transition strategies. Migrants often play a crucial role in essential sectors such as construction, waste management, and transport, yet they face barriers to accessing decent employment opportunities.
Future research, set to be released by C40 Cities and other organizations, will explore how migrants contribute essential skills to urban areas, particularly in agriculture and primary industries. These skills are vital for cities’ adaptation strategies and green economy initiatives. Examples of city-led actions to integrate migrants into the green economy and create inclusive job opportunities will be detailed in upcoming policy briefs.
Yvonne Aki Sawyerr, Mayor of Freetown and a leader in C40 Cities, emphasized the need for global cooperation to address climate migration. She pointed out that between 2016 and 2021, 43 million children were displaced due to extreme weather, underscoring the critical need for increased investment in urban climate action. Despite the $5 trillion needed annually for such efforts, only 8% of the funds are currently available.
In summary, cities must be prepared to manage the impact of climate migration effectively. With the right support and resources, this challenge can be transformed into an opportunity for economic and social growth, benefiting both the urban communities and the global climate.