With the UK’s ageing population set to rise significantly, migrants of working age are becoming increasingly vital to sustaining public services and pensions. By 2032, Scotland’s population is projected to reach 5.7 million, while the UK’s could grow to 72.5 million, largely due to migration.
According to the Office for National Statistics, nearly 10 million people could move to the UK long-term between 2022 and 2032, while around five million may leave. This means migration will be the primary driver of population growth, as births and deaths are expected to cancel each other out. However, one of the most pressing concerns is the growing number of pensioners. By 2032, the UK will have 1.7 million more retirees, bringing the total to 13.7 million. Without younger workers, funding state pensions and public services will become increasingly difficult.
Scotland faces a unique challenge as deaths already outnumber births, and many migrants prefer settling in England or Wales. Adam Corlett, principal economist at the Resolution Foundation, highlights the economic benefits of migration, noting that a larger working-age population leads to a stronger economy, more workers, and increased tax revenue—potentially boosting government finances by £5 billion annually by the decade’s end.
Given these factors, a Scotland-specific visa system, similar to regional visas in Australia, could help address labor shortages and demographic concerns. However, political tensions between Scotland and Westminster make this unlikely. The UK government is hesitant to grant Scotland any control over migration, fearing it could strengthen calls for independence.
Despite the challenges immigration presents, its benefits are often overlooked. A rational, fact-based discussion is needed—one that moves beyond political divisions and focuses on the economic realities facing Scotland and the UK as a whole.