Airbus has forecast that demand for air travel in Europe will nearly double over the next two decades, with international migration, rising incomes, and expanding global middle-class populations expected to be among the main drivers of passenger growth.
According to the aircraft manufacturer’s 2026 Global Market Forecast, Europe’s growing migrant population is increasing demand for international flights, particularly journeys made by people travelling to visit friends and relatives in their countries of origin.
Airbus said there were around 108 million foreign-born residents living in Europe in 2024, representing a 60% increase compared with 2000, based on United Nations data. The company believes this growing diaspora will continue to fuel demand for international air travel as families maintain close ties with relatives abroad.
The aviation industry refers to this type of travel as Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR), which has become one of the leading reasons for booking international flights from the United Kingdom, second only to leisure holidays.
Antonio da Costa, Airbus’ Head of Market Analysis, said migration has become a much more significant factor in aviation demand than in previous decades.
According to Da Costa, the increase is not only driven by the growing number of migrants worldwide but also by rising incomes among migrant communities. As more migrants become financially secure, they are able to travel home more frequently and maintain stronger family connections across borders.
He also noted that children born to migrant families often continue travelling to their parents’ countries of origin, further increasing long-term passenger demand on international routes, particularly to destinations such as India.
In addition to migration, Airbus identified the rapid expansion of the global middle and upper classes as the single biggest factor shaping future air travel.
The company estimates that the global middle and upper-income population has grown from approximately 2.5 billion people two decades ago to around 4.5 billion today and is expected to exceed six billion by 2045. Rising incomes in countries such as India and China are enabling millions more people to travel regularly for business, tourism, education, and family visits.
Airbus also pointed to the growing number of international students as another contributor to passenger growth. Around six million students are studying abroad globally, creating additional travel demand as they return home during holidays and academic breaks.
Looking ahead, Airbus predicts that the likelihood of people travelling by air will continue to increase across emerging economies. Air travel demand is expected to double in countries including Nigeria, South Africa, and Egypt, while India is forecast to experience a sixfold increase in the propensity to fly over the next 20 years.
The company also expects China’s domestic aviation market to become the world’s largest, overtaking the United States, with India emerging as the second-largest domestic air travel market.
Another trend highlighted in the forecast is the growing importance of medium-sized and smaller cities. Rather than relying mainly on major international hubs, airlines are expected to expand direct connections between regional cities as demand spreads beyond traditional aviation centres.
To meet the anticipated increase in passenger traffic, Airbus forecasts that the global aviation industry will require more than 42,000 new aircraft by 2045. Around 20,000 aircraft will replace ageing fleets, while approximately 22,000 additional aircraft will be needed to accommodate future growth. The majority are expected to serve short-haul routes, with the remainder operating on long-haul international services.
Why does Airbus expect air travel demand to increase?
Airbus says stronger migration, expanding migrant communities, rising global incomes, and the rapid growth of the middle class will encourage more people to travel internationally. Family visits, international education, tourism, and business travel are all expected to contribute to the increase in passenger demand.